News

Has the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Already Begun?

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War is nigh… or already here?On Monday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin declared that he would send Russian troops to eastern Ukraine. This added fuel to the tension between Russia and Ukraine. While it may sound as though an invasion might be already underway, many observers are cautious in describing the situation.

Alexander Nazaryan, Yahoo News White House Correspondent wrote that “Europe moved closer to war Monday.” According to the Associated Press, “a Russian invasion of Ukraine was likely Monday” if it wasn’t already.

Putin’s language, while not making it clear whether the troops are already in Eastern Ukraine to invade separatist territories, or if they were just about to, seems to have caused confusion. The A.P. notes that the developments occurred at a time when there was a surge in fighting in Eastern Ukraine, which Western powers feel Russia might use to justify an attack.

Since 2014, fighting between Ukrainian forces in Donbas and Russia-backed separatists has been ongoing.

Putin declared Monday, “I believe it necessary to take an overdue decision: To recognize immediately the independence and sovereignity of Donetsk People’s Republic & Luhansk People’s Republic.”

Putin’s “combative Address” was “a fast hour-long recitation and challenge to decades-old historical grievances, as well as an unmistakable challenge of Moscow to post-Cold War international orders dominated by Western powers.” Wall Street Journal. “The speech, which was purportedly intended to acknowledge the independence two statelets Russia split from Ukraine in 2014, highlighted Mr. Putin’s belief that Ukraine was an historical accident that America has used as a launchpad for its attack on Russia.

For a complete play-by of Putin’s speech, please see this Twitter threadDmitri Alperovitch (Russian-American founder CrowdStrike and The Alperovitch Institute, Johns Hopkins University)

The U.S. replies.Following Putin’s Monday announcements President Joe Biden made an executive order that prohibited trade and investment between Americans, and people in “the so called Donetsk People’s Republic or Luhansk People’s Republic” regions.

“This E.O. The swift and severe economic sanctions we have prepared to take with Allies in the event of a Russian incursion in Ukraine are distinct,” stated the White House in a statement. “The United States will use all its resources to take out those involved in efforts to weaken Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen calledPutin announces “This is a flagrant breach of international law.”

You see the bigger picture. Washington PostRobert Kagan is a columnist—a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, prominent hawk, and ardent defender of the U.S.-led postwar order—offers a depressing analysis for what this CouldIt could be a complete takeover of Ukraine or a realignment to the international order. Kagan says, “It is wishful believing to imagine that the conflict with Ukraine stops.”

Many changes have occurred over time in the map of Europe. This map reflects U.S. expansion and Russian collapse from 1980s to now. The next one will most likely reflect revival of Russian military strength and the withdrawal of U.S. influences. Combining Chinese gains in East Asia, the Western Pacific and other factors it signals the end of current order. It also marks the start of an era global disorder and conflict in which every country in the globe struggles to adjust to new arrangements of power.

While his forecasts are not certain, they represent an important thread within centrist-hawk concerns.

The PostThe editorial board offers an unfavorable short-term outlook:

It is how the postwar and post-Cold War worlds end.

Alex Nowrasteh, Cato Institute’s Director of Research points out that Europe will see an influx of Ukrainian refugees.

FREE MINDS

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have kept a lot of COVID-19 information out of public view. The New York Times reports. These include data by age, race, vaccination status and coronavirus hospitalizations. One of the reasons the agency offered as an explanation was worries that people might draw conclusions from the information that officials didn’t want them to—which is to say, our national public health agency withholds public health information that doesn’t conform to political messaging standards.

Researchers quoted in TimesThey are rightfully upset by this. “I mean you can’t learn anything about them,” stated Yvonne Maldonado of the American Academy of Pediatrics’s Committee on Infectious Diseases.

FREE MARKETS

The court finds that the First Amendment doesn’t prohibit licensing for nutritionists or dietitians.On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals, 11th Circuit ruled that Florida’s Dietetics and Nutrition Practice Act (which mandates licensure for nutritionists and dietitians) does not infringe a unlicensed nutritionist’s freedom of speech. Heather Kokesch Del Castillo was involved in the case. Her business, Constitution Nutrition, provided coaching for health.

In its ruling, the court said that Del Castillo started her company in California. She did not have to be licensed to run it. “After moving to Florida in 2015, Del Castillo continued to run her business—meeting online with most of her clients and meeting in person with two clients who lived in Florida. Del Castillo described herself as an “holistic health coach” and not a dietician. Del Castillo adapted her coaching for each client and included advice on diet.

In reaching its verdict, the court referenced a prior decision involving interior designers. “A statute that governs the practice or occupation of an occupation isn’t unconstitutional as an abrogation of the right of free speech so long as any inhibition to that right is just an incidental effect of following an otherwise legitimate regulation.”

Eugene Volokh is a blogger and law professor who disagrees with the decision. He writes that regulation of (say), surgery or the distribution pharmaceuticals is regulation. The speech between surgeons, patients and their families might be an incidental part of that conduct. Regulating people who advise on diets (or give psychotherapeutic advice without prescribing drugs), is all about regulation speech.

“And the government is regulating the dietary coach’s speech precisely because it communicates information to people—information on which the people might act in ways the government might think is harmful to themselves (or perhaps, as to some professions, to others),” adds Volokh. The speech and all the research that went into it are being regulated by the government. This restriction is speech-related, so renaming it conduct restriction seems to me like obscuring the truth.

FOLLOWUP

Ottawa is now the home of The Canadian Freedom Consvoy.Reports T: “As Sunday approached, more than 190 protesters were arrested, 389 charges had been filed against them, nearly 80 cars had been towed, and large sections of capital were cordoned or fenced as police entered into what Ottawa interim police chief Steve Bell called a’maintenance stage’ in an effort to stop demonstrators considered illegal.”The Washington Post

While residents rejoiced the return of normalcy, Canada’s Parliament was debating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s invoke of the Emergencies Act. The members will vote on Monday whether to approve or deny the use of special powers under this law.

Although the act should pass, critics on both sides of the political spectrum have been critical. Trudeau stated that no other measures were being taken to curb the illegal and dangerous activities that are affecting security and the economy of Canada.

QUICK HITS

• The FBI seized nearly $1 million from Carl Nelson and Amy Sterner Nelson and never charged them with a crime.

• England is ending COVID-19 policies related to isolation periods, testing requirements, and contact tracing. The country will no longer offer free tests, nor require proof of vaccination.

• Donald Trump’s new social media platform, called Truth Social, has launched.

•  A “fuck the police” shirt isn’t sufficient cause for arrest, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit reminds Ohio cops.

• How anti-smut activists made the 1950s rock song “Louie, Louie” famous.

• There’s little evidence that mask mandates made a difference during the omicron surge.

• Columbia has decriminalized abortion. Colombia’s Constitutional Court has ruled in favor of abortion. This follows decades of Latin America women’s organizing, which included the demand for more protections and rights. Notes: In September, Mexico’s Supreme Court declared abortion uncriminal in a similar case. Argentina’s Congress made the same decision and legalized it in late 2020. The New York Times.

• The Associated Press looks at skyrocketing U.S. rental prices. A Realtor.com analysis found that the median rent increased by an astonishing 19.3% in 50 of America’s largest metro areas. The increase was for properties having two bedrooms or less. The Miami metropolitan area saw the largest jump, with the median rent jumping to $2850. This is 49.8% more than last year. Other cities across Florida—Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville—and the Sun Belt destinations of San Diego, Las Vegas, Austin, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee, all saw spikes of more than 25% during that time period.”