The “Keep 1.5 °C Alive!” Climate change activists’ rally cry is an illusion. A new study has shown that this is not the case. NatureCalculations show that the average global temperature could be kept at 2° Celsius below preindustrial levels.
Signatories to the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement are pledged to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” The United Nations states that the carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced by 45 percent before 2030 in order for 1.5 C to be achieved. Cuts that deep imply global fossil fuel production falling by roughly 6 percent per year and emissions dropping 7.6 percent per year from 2020 to 2030.
ExxonMobil has projected that in 2030 the world’s oil, natural gas and coal production will exceed current levels, while keeping its interests in mind. An October 2021 United Nations report essentially concurs, warning that big energy producing countries currently “plan to produce around 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5°C limit.”
It´s clear that the 1.5 C goal is unrealistic. What about keeping average temperature increases below 2° Celsius, above preindustrial levels? New NatureIt is possible according to a study, provided that countries who have pledged net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 fulfill their commitments. As the U.N. notes, “net zero means cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere, by oceans and forests for instance.”
“Warming can be kept just below 2 degrees Celsius if all conditional and unconditional pledges are implemented in full and on time,” the researchers conclude. “Peak warming could be limited to 1.9–2.0 degrees Celsius.” The recent research by researchers found that instead of expecting drastic cuts in emissions to 2030, they predict that greenhouse gas emissions worldwide will rise sometime within the next decade. It is unlikely that politicians will fulfill their promises 30 years from now.
This new study confirms earlier findings of Roger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado climate policy scholar and co-authors published in the journal. Environmental Research Letters. Pielke, Substack Newsletter: Pielke says that all possible scenarios are feasible The Honest BrokerThe median projection is for a total temperature increase of less than 3° Celsius by 2100. The median projection for 2100 is for a warming rate of 2.2 degrees Celsius.
Pielke asked the question, “Is it ready for positive news about climate?” Pielke asked then, “Is the world ready for good news on climate?” NatureStudy adds to the good news.