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Don’t Exaggerate What’s at Stake in Ukraine

Russia is deploying more than 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border. However, it insists that it does not intend to invade. US is sending weapons and layering on. Sanctions, And placing 8500 troops on “high-alert” to make it possible– deployment to Eastern Europe Last week After being criticized for his “weak” stance regarding the conflict, President Joe Biden decided to draw a line. “It is considered an invasion if any Russian-assembled units cross the Ukrainian border. It is a violation of international law. [Russian President Vladimir]Putin has made the right choice. Russia will have to pay for it.”

The escalation in the Ukraine crisis could have been avoided if there had been a bit less hubris, and more realistic thinking. At leasthave been reduced. However, the international policy establishment has lost sight of how to conduct a cost/benefit analysis. This conflict’s risks outweigh the importance of Ukraine to U.S. international policy.

Sen. Chris Coons (D–Del.) wants“The sanctions we employ to get Iran on the table” But Russia controls a significant portion of global energy markets—Nearly 40% of Europe’s gas imports—so permitting Iran-like measures against it would have disastrous effects. Russia faced economic sanctions InfutileIt used them in 2014 to deter Crimea from being invaded. U.S. sanctions often hurt American economic interests and do not change the behavior of the targeted country.

In the meantime, American military support has reached more than $200 millions Reached Ukraine. The weapons dump was justified. Many different methodsIt can be interpreted as a way to change Putin’s mind or give the Ukrainian military an advantage against possible invaders. U.S. military and weapons equipment worth $650million was sent to Ukraine in 2021The most popular since 2014.—and it clearlyPutin didn’t stop him from surrounding Ukraine in three ways. It’s difficult to believe that more equipment will be enough for Ukraine.

Ukraine Defense It has been all about.Ukraine: Michael Brendan Dougherty believes in National ReviewBut it is about the defense of “liberal global order.” Russia hawks are primarily motivated by Robert Rotberg (ex-President of the World Peace Foundation).The U.S. would be discrediting the World War II veterans if it failed to defend Ukraine against Russia. This would mean that the U.S. might be placing its earned “superpower status” at risk. This exaggeration is of a catastrophic magnitude.

Stephen Walt, a Harvard University professor writes that “the world is paying an extremely high price for trusting in a flawed theory about world politics.” Foreign Affairs. Russia regards Ukraine as a strategic imperative. Ukraine won’t be on Americas top foreign policy priority list as Russia. It will also not become an issue of who is the next global superpower.

Ukraine isn’t yet a NATO member. Putin is determined to stop Ukraine joining NATO. However, he wants to prevent any future NATO expansion. There are serious disagreements between member nations—best exemplified by Germany refusing to send weapons—about how to treat Ukraine due to differing attitudes toward Moscow. NATO would be distracted from China if it became more involved in Ukraine.

Biden might not be able to choose the best option here. While he doesn’t like to be left behind as Russia trounces Ukraine in the polls, it wouldn’t be prudent to start war, especially after having ended another 20-year-old war.