In May I posted about Texas’s attraction to people from other states “voting with our feet”. This is what I used to build on. Washington PostArticle on this topic. Recent developments include Texas MonthlyFarhad Manjoo from the New York Times I have also published two additional articles about the same subject, which provide more insight. Overall, both articles reinforce my and others’ previous conclusion that Texas’ success is primarily due to cheap housing (thanks to having dramatically weaker land-use restrictions than many states on the east and west coasts), low taxes, and extensive job opportunities created in part by relatively low regulation.
Manjoo summarizes Texas’ appeal.
The Lone Star is calling as the Golden Gate closes. We have data that shows Texas is an economic and affordable place. It is also less susceptible to being affected by climate change. For the many hypothetical life scenarios I ran through our quiz, the suburbs around Dallas — places like Plano, McKinney, Garland, Euless and Allen — came up a lot. This is why they are among the nation’s fastest growing areas. They have relatively little crime and are teeming with jobs, housing, highly rated schools, good restaurants, clean air and racial and political diversity — all at a steep discount compared to the cost of living in America’s coastal metropolises.
Manjoo notes that Texas is home to 42% of all in-migration (which was about 42% in 2019, according to other analysts). California has lower taxes and higher living costs.
The following is the Texas MonthlySummary of Texas’s Growth:
The Texas population grew by about four million people in the past decade—far more than any other state in raw numbers, and enough as a percentage to make it the third-fastest-growing state in the nation over that period, behind Utah and Idaho. About 3,800 people live here each week, compared to those who move from other states. Texas is a constant presence on any national list of fastest growing cities. The U.S. Census Bureau released the latest data for August and listed Fort Worth as well as Austin on the list. Frisco easily topped the list of large cities, followed by a lot of other suburbs and exurbs, such as New Braunfels, McKinney, and Conroe….
This growth has brought with it a lot of worry about everything, from the overheated housing sector to concerns of hostile takeovers by liberal coastal elites. These worries have been fueled by news headlines in recent years. Greg Abbott’s 2018 campaign slogan was, “Don’t California My Texas.” It is possible that partisans are wrong, perhaps not surprising.
One, despite all of the attention given to Californians, it is interesting that many new arrivals have key features in common with lifelong Texans. Many are coming for abundant jobs, lower taxes, fewer regulations, and a more reasonable cost of living…..
The Texas MonthlyIt is also important to note that half of all the population growth in the US comes from ethnic or racial minority groups (particularly Hispanics, and Asians) and that the US has always been a magnet both for domestic and international migrants.
Further, the article notes that the Texas influx of foot voters could have a small impact on Texas’s political stability, contrary to speculations.
[A]ccording to Derek Ryan, a GOP political consultant who leads voter-targeting efforts for candidates up and down the ballot, there’s very little data to support either argument—that Texas is growing more conservative because of ideological sorting or that it’s becoming more liberal at the hands of Californians…
Ryan’s most recent analysis showed that 50.4 percent of Ryan’s possible new Texans would be likely Democratic voters and 49.5 percent would likely vote Republican. According to Ryan, “So you know,” he stated, “We hear a lot of these people moving out of blue states and taking blue-state politics with it, but that doesn’t always seem true.” The middle is closer. While there are some staunch liberals here who are voting this way, it seems that the vote is largely in favor of Republicans over Democrats.
This undercuts conservative concerns that immigration will cause the “Californification of Texas” and worries (mostly from the left), that foot voting could lead to a big sort in which polarization will be exacerbated as people move to more homogeneous ideologies. People with diverse political opinions prefer to live in areas with more job opportunities and lower taxes. The articles mention in both that Texas’s areas with the highest growth rate are those that have large immigrant populations and are diverse on a racial or ethnic basis. These statistics suggest that more people want to live in different areas and that foot voting does not contribute to racial and ethnic segregation.
Texas’s success in attracting foot voters has much to do with the GOP-dominated state government. Most of the fast-growing parts of the state discussed in the above-referenced articles have Democratic-controlled local governments, most notably the cities of Austin, Houston, Dallas, and the bulk of their respective suburbs. These cities are governed by Democrats, who have little affection for GOP social policies. But, unlike Democratic-controlled local governments in some other states, they set up relatively few obstacles to new housing construction and job creation.
As I previously stressed, Texas’ success at attracting voters by foot does not necessarily mean that all policies must be approved of. Progressives and otherCan learn important lessons from some policies, although they rightly decry the abuses of SB 8 (anti-abortion) and Texas’ Republicans’ inexcusable role in trying to reverse the 2020 election. The state’s successes are largely due to policies that have been abandoned by the national GOP, as I explained in my earlier post on Texas foot voting. Republicans can also learn from Texas.
Noting that virtually all data on Texas’ ability to attract immigrants predates SB 8 is important. It is possible that SB 8 will be repealed by Texas state courts, or further federal litigation. This could reduce Texas’ appeal to foot voters.
I am a proponent of broad abortion rights, but hate SB 8. My tentative opinion is that for many potential migrants, housing costs and taxes are far more important than the decision to abort. The impact of variations in abortion restrictions on migration hasn’t been significant over the last decade. The influence, up to now, of Roe v. Wade we don’t have any recent evidence of the impact of abortion restrictions as draconian as those of SB 8. It remains to be seen if the law is still in effect what impact it will have on Texas’ ability to attract migrants.
This is a caveat. Texas’s ability to attract foot voters merits recognition and can be used as a lesson for other states. Liberal magazines such as The TimesThe PostAnd the Texas MonthlyThey deserve to be commended for acknowledging it and for trying to solve the issue.