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Ukraine Needs Clear Communication, Not Weapons, From the U.S.

There are approximately 100,000 Russian troops stationed at Ukraine’s Eastern Border. Reports suggest that Moscow is also there Planning might sound appealingAn incursion As soon as the next monthA casual observer could be mistaken for believing that war in Eastern Europe may soon come. U.S. officials fear a Russian invasion. Very serious.

Last week, Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken, Secretary of State USA, held a meeting Were there no other options?Both sides sought to ease tensions regarding Ukraine. Both did not. A two-hour videoconferenceThe meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Joe Biden on Tuesday was more of an open forum than a discussion about conflict-resolution strategies. The U.S.-Russian positions regarding Ukraine seem to be almost incompatible at the moment, while both sides lip service and continue to support a fragile diplomatic process.  Putin insists on assurances that Ukraine won’t be swallowed by the West orbit.There are legal guaranteesTo this effect. This was a point that he repeated during his video chat with Joe Biden December 7. Washington is meanwhile requesting Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory and to end its support to separatists within the Donbas. Washington also demands Kyiv regain complete control of the Ukrainian border.

Washington, and more generally the West, tend to be tougher than Moscow about the latest Russian brinkmanship act and support Ukraine’s defense. This is the argumentThe logic is this: If the West refuses to give Putin the riot acts or to put in place stronger sanctions against Russia to prevent another invasion, it is catering to Putin’s worst instincts. Biden’s administration seems to follow the same logic. The White House has been discussing the possibility of sending Additional lethal military equipmentTo the Ukrainian Army, which would rise on top $2.5 billionU.S. Security Assistance already given to Kyiv in 2014“I will be looking you in the eyes and say, like President Biden did today and looked at President Putin in his eye, that we’re ready to do things in 2014.” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan ReportersDirectly after Biden’s phone call with Putin, at the White House. These are just a few of the options available. Leaning on Germany to CancelIn the unlikely event that Russian forces attempt to cross the border, the Nord Stream II natural gaz pipeline will be used. 

However, these assumptions don’t match Moscow’s actions over the past seven year. U.S. weapon shipments to Kyiv did not do anything to help Russian forces leave Ukraine, or change the calculus of the Russian political leaders in relation to this conflict. Indeed, in most cases, the Russians have simply responded to U.S. weapons shipments with weapons shipments of its own—something experts monitoring the war have warned about Many years. Russian-made arms Continue to flow towards the battlefieldThere is little to no sign that this trend will end in Eastern Ukraine anytime soon. There is no reason to think that more of the same results will produce different results.

A markedly different approach is needed if the United States truly cares about Ukraine. That means sitting Ukrainian officials down—as Biden should do during his upcoming Thursday call with Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelensky—and giving them some tough love about what the U.S. is and isn’t willing to do. These are three key messages.

In the first place, U.S. combat force will never be sent to Ukraine as a deterrent against a Russian conventional invasion. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the Ukrainian President If you wish otherwiseUkraine is not an NATO member and therefore does not have the right to NATO protection. It’s unlikely that Kyiv will ever be granted this privilege. In reality, Ukraine should be admitted to NATO. It shouldn’t be even consideredIt would cause immediate conflict between NATO and the U.S. troops, which could ruin any opportunities for West to stabilise its relations with Russia.

The second is that U.S. officials should make clear to Kyiv, whether they are fighting Russia or separatists, that it is not an attractive option. Russian officials are likely to exaggerate the possibility of an escalating Ukrainian military offensive within the Donbas, but the Zelenskyy administration needs to reconsider before considering such an option. Although the Ukrainian military has been a strong supporter of democracy, it is not clear if they will be able to impose their rule on Russia. Professionalism is betterAlthough it is battle-tested and more experienced than in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea Peninsula, Kyiv remains the most vulnerable party in the dispute. It doesn’t matter that Ukraine may cause major damage to the separatists; Russia wouldn’t allow them to win militarily. Russia will never allow Ukraine to win any conventional war. spends ten timesKyiv’s military actions. Ukraine will most likely suffer more territory losses from increased fighting.

Finally, and most importantly, the U.S. must tell Kyiv it should redouble its efforts to reach a comprehensive diplomatic agreement with Moscow and separatists. Zelenskyy seems to have largely ignored this except for A few prisoners exchangesAt the start of his tenure. This Zelenskyy Recently acknowledgedDirect talks with Russia seem inevitable. This is an important first step, and it may indicate that the Ukrainian government might be accepting the difficult reality in which it is. Officials from Ukraine will have to do more than offer talks. They must get to the bottom of the matter and make the necessary changes. Minsk II accords—a diplomatic package that trades a full Russian troop withdrawal and the handover of Ukraine’s eastern border back to Kyiv in exchange for a measure of political autonomy for the Donbas.

None of this will be easy, and a peaceful ending to the war in Eastern Ukraine will take determination, patience, and sincerity from every party with a stake in the outcome—including Russia and its proxies in the Donbas. Moscow’s insistence on a traditional invasion will mean that Ukraine won’t have the diplomatic space to negotiate a settlement with Russia.

However, the U.S. has the ability to incentivize Kyiv towards operating through the reality lens and not fantasy. The U.S. does not favor Ukraine by giving it the false hope that they will provide unconditional support.