It’s Still the Economy, Stupid (Not Critical Race Theory or Trans Bathrooms)

It’s still not clear who won the New Jersey governor’s race. This race is, alongside the Virginia governor’s, one of the two major bellwether contests for this season. But a story is beginning to form like concrete around the feet of a mafioso. This means that discussions about race and history will be at the forefront of American politics during the midterms. Huffs: “Critical Race Theory” Has been a winner for years. New YorkMagazine assumes that 2022’s midterms will take place over magazine The 1619 project Reading is taught in 14,000 of the nation’s school districts.

It is perhaps comforting to see this for Democratic losers (especially for those who weep). racismAt every defeat, Republican winnersPeople almost automatically mistake their discontent with Democrats for an acceptance of GOP values. This gives them a quick excuse to lose and gives the other a simple game plan for moving forward. However, it is fundamentally misleading.

In 1992, Bill Clinton eked out a presidential victory—he won with just 43 percent of the popular vote—because of his mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid,” a phrase attributed to his campaign manager, James Carville. Except for very few exceptions, pockets are more important than all other issues. In the end, a slowing economy and concern about the future direction of the country will spell doom to incumbents as well as candidates who are aligned with that party.

That’s what the New Jersey and Virginia races are about. CNN exit polls from Virginia reveal that education is the number one issue, followed closely by taxes (25 percent), tax reform (15 percent), coronavirus (14%), and abortion (8%) Fox News’ exit polls in Virginia show the exact same results. 35 percent of respondents cite economy/jobs first, followed by 17 percent who cite coronavirus and 14 percent who cite education. Fox News claimed that 72 percent believed the controversy over “critical racism” in schools was an “important” factor. But, 86 percent thought the treatment of COVID was crucial, 85 percent felt the views of President Joe Biden on taxes was significant and 76 percent considered negotiations about the governing agenda a huge deal.

As of now, exit polls in New Jersey have not yet been released. However, Monmouth University’s final survey of voters revealed that taxes were by far the largest concern among respondents (27 percent). Next came the economy/jobs (20%), education and schools (16%), and the COVID epidemic (15 percent). Finally crime was at 7 percent.

Biden, a highly unpopular President, is similar in his approval ratings to the former President Donald Trump. He is also only one term president since George H.W. Bush lost reelection in 1989, 29 years after his victory over the Gulf War. The refusal of most major Democrats to challenge him was a result. Biden’s total approval rating was at RealClearPoliticsJust 43 percent support his economic management and only 40.6 per cent approve. Only 39 percent believe the country has the right direction.

It’s hard to blame anyone, but we can. Biden’s America has been plagued by a bad economy, persistent and rising inflation, disappearing workers, supply-chain issues, and a struggling workforce for the first 10 months. The persistent threat that Democrats will raise taxes and pass massive budget-breaking spending bills, with the slimmest majority possible that will include the federal government in nearly every business transaction at any level, is just one of the many factors that have made Biden’s America a disaster. That’s a recipe for a throw-out-the-incumbent-party tsunami that will result in massive midterm losses for the Dems. Chart shows that almost all seats lost by the president’s party are in double figures.

It’s particularly true during the presidential midterm election. Trump lost 26 House members three years ago, and Barack Obama was the one who took what he called a “shellacking” to gain 63 House seats. George W. Bush became the first president in many decades to win seats in the House in his first midterm election. His feat is due to the effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Because they can ignore the truth that both parties are horrible at growing government’s size, scope, or spending, a focus on culture-war topics like teaching critical race theory and other cultural-war issues will attract both major parties. Trump was responsible for a huge increase in per capita spending, which is what you could say. This happened as early as 2020. The New York TimesAccording to reports, “total federal spending increased by $1441 per individual since 2016”. Biden entered office promising an increase in spending of $11 trillion for the next decade. He might not get it if he persists in his quest for power.

Since George W. Bush was president, spending increased and reach of federal government were greatly increased. While claiming that he is a small-government guy, Washington’s smart strategy has been to tell people you believe in limited government but lavish tax dollars on your friends and constituents. Although it’s difficult to recall, even Obama focused on cutting spending prior to overseeing the then-record-setting budget deficits.

The midterms will present a challenge for libertarians as well as other believers in smaller government. We need to be more focused on the non-sexy topics of cutting spending, the size and governance rather than getting all involved with culture wars around the K-12 curriculum. We’ll have the majority on our side—after a brief flirtation with the idea of bigger government, Gallup finds that 52 percent of Americans believe “the government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses”—but that might not be enough.